PARTY organisers are on guard for some potential head-scratching arithmetic if Labour fails to hold a decisive majority after next week’s council elections.

The magic number is 28 seats for a winning majority.

As the ruling party is starting the race with 45 councillors, it would have to lose 17 to fall below that crucial water mark.

It’s not as simple as that, however, as Labour are facing one battle after another from a mix of opponents: the surging Greens in places like Highgate and Kentish Town, the Liberal Democrats in the north-west of the borough and the Camden’s People Alliance in Somers Town.

The Conservatives, pummeled at the last council elections in Camden, are even high on the belief they can take seats off Labour in Primrose Hill.

This political pot pourri means any conversations about who might work together in the event of the council falling into “no overall control” could be complex.

Organisers from all of the parties were speaking like football managers this week, with the view of taking each ward as it comes and seeing where we are once all the votes have been counted.

As the New Journal reported last week, polls and predictions have been producing contrasting predictions and the electoral system – where residents vote for more than one candidate – makes it harder to make accurate forecasts.

Having the highest vote share does not always translate into the highest number of seats in the council chamber, if support is stacked up in a concentrated area of the borough.

Even if Labour holds on to Camden but see its dominating majority reduced, it would mean a significant culture change at the Town Hall.

Currently, councillors can afford to send apologies for absence and lateness without fear of the party losing a vote.

A tighter make-up would heap pressure on members to attend everything to ensure motions and budget pass, as Labour and the Lib Dems found when they were split by just one vote in neighbouring Islington in 2000s.

Here in Camden, the Liberal Democrats emerged as the largest party in 2006 – Labour was punished locally for the war in Iraq embarked on by Tony Blair’s government ­– but they did not have the numbers for a full majority.

A pact was agreed with the Tories to share power, but the Lib Dems would be wary of repeating the deal after spending years distancing themselves from the pictures of David Cameron and Nick Clegg shaking hands in the Downing Street rose garden.

The Greens and CPA are also unlikely to work with the Conservatives.

A canary coalition between the Greens and the Lib Dems would also lead to fraught discussions, and both parties may prefer to be large opposition groups against a Labour council under more pressure to get its policy programme through the chamber.

A series of less than illuminating comments on what could happen if the voting leads to a rainbow of colours splashed across the chamber.

Labour councillor Richard Olszewski, the council leader, told the New Journal this week: “Labour has a long-standing policy of having nothing to do with Tories and Reform, or anything like this.”

But he added that there was no point talking about “hypotheticals” and that it was a case of “wait and see”.

Councillor Lorna Jane Russell, currently Camden’s sole Green councillor, said: “I can promise I have not had any conversations with other parties about coalitions.

“We are all focused on making sure we get as many councillor as we can – and then those conversations would happen. Personally, I believe the party who has the most amount of seats should be leading.”

Liberal Democrat leader Councillor Tom Simon added: “At this stage we are keeping an open mind and focussing on winning seats – I’m not going to say we are going to do x or y at this stage.”

Conservative leader Councillor Steve Adams said: “I can’t foresee an official alliance. I’m collegiate, but a stalemate coalition would be a rather non-productive thing.”

He suggested that the Lib Dems would struggle to work with Labour locally after bearing the brunt of more council chamber attacks.