Published: 16 May, 2013
by RICHARD OSLEY

I’M not a therapist but you wonder whether the problem gambler is perhaps at their most vulnerable when they hit an unlikely winning run.

With each slice of fortune the confidence grows until they are reck­lessly betting the house on more and more fantastical attempts to cheat the law of probabilities.

But the law of probabilities isn’t cheated for too long.

The guy sweating on Blackjack cards at the Monte Carlo casino might get away with it once, twice, or even three times.

They might tell themselves they’ll never put themselves so perilously close to the abyss again. But sooner or later the kicker comes and it’s a direct path to the poor house.

For all the end-of-season smiles and waves at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night – the Gunnersaurus enthus­iastically kissed his badge as the players waved goodbye to the home support – Arsenal are a walking embodiment of this jackalish behaviour.

They have gambled their Champions League future on one last punt, backing themselves to win away at Newcastle United, who are unpredictable opponents at the best of times.

When the Gunners secured Champions League qualification on the very last day of the season at West Bromwich Albion last year, surely, surely, somebody important at Arsenal turned around and said to themselves: We’ll bloody make sure we don’t go through this again.

Yet 12 months later, they are going through it again.

That’s why even with a 4-1 victory against an exhausted Wigan Athletic on Tuesday, there was an uneasy farewell to the team full of players whose lack of focus in the opening months of the season has proved so damaging.

With the passing of time, it is easy to forget just how fortunate Arsenal have been in gaining qualification for the élite European competition at Tottenham’s expense.

Last year, the real killer for Spurs was a draw away at Aston Villa in their penultimate match. If they had won, as they should have done, then they would have advanced. Arsenal were reprieved by a silly own-goal by William Gallas of all people, just as they were reprieved when Spurs lost at West Ham on the final day in 2006 when victory would have secured a qualifying spot.

The story of the lasagne poisoning that year is the stuff of much mirth, but with each re-telling it masks how cavalier Arsenal have been with allowing their chief rivals to get so close.

Wenger may be heralded for his ability to keep the Gunners in the Champions League for so long, but those were huge strokes of fortune.

As he saw his old rival Sir Alex Ferguson ride off into the sunset, some may have wondered whether he should have matched the Scot’s ruthlessness over the years. When Fergie realised he had spent money on a mistake, he wasted no time in moving on the players that didn’t fit.

Arsenal players, in contrast, seem to get years to settle into the team. Wenger has shown immense loyalty to his squad but some of the better players have decided to desert him and the ones that have stayed have been guilty of crucial lapses of concentration.

There is a school of thought in the loftier seats at Ashburton Grove that Arsenal could do well without a season in the Champions League, a break from the Groundhog experience of performing well in the group stages before being outgunned in the later rounds.

“Keep telling yourself that Gooners,” Spurs fans will understandably bellow. If Sunday’s showdown was against any other team, maybe, just maybe, Arsenal fans wouldn’t really care at all. 

But it isn’t, it’s against Tottenham, and with it comes the natural, albeit childish, right to brag to the neighbours. That excitement hides flaws and failings in both clubs. 

The reality is that an Arsenal without Robin van Persie and a Spurs with Gareth Bale, the star act, are harder to split than either’s core support will ever admit.

It’s a toss of the coin, the turn of the river card. That law of probabilities can be a devil.